This week has seen reports of heat index records in the Gulf and Near East that exceed 140°F, in some cases as high as 150°F...well above what the human body can tolerate for long.
The most newsworthy event focused on Dubai, which measured a 144°F heat index and a “real” temperature of 113°F. Asaluyeh, Iran also reported a 149 °F heat index. But the parade of broken records is covering much wider swaths of the planet, including catastrophic heat waves in the US West and East coasts, Southern Europe, South Asia and Africa.
Most of these places are historically hot. But not this hot for this long. Real people are dying, including the barely reported June deaths of 1,300 Hajj pilgrims in Mecca in 120°F heat. They were going to throw stones at the devil.
Is the heat index – which accounts for air temperature and humidity – real?
Short answer: real enough to cook your internal organs, my friend.
In the context of effect on the human body, the heat index is EVEN MORE REAL than standard air temperatures as measured on the thermometer. The body doesn’t care what the instruments report, it only knows whether or not it can cool itself.
For example, Persian Gulf International Airport reported successive thermometer air temperature readings of “only” 108°F and 106°F, but heat indexes of 149°F.
Why the big difference? Part of the answer is a lesser reported stat: a 95°F reading of Persian Gulf water temperatures, which generate massive amounts of humidity.
The body cools itself by sweating, but at those levels it is unable to do that because moisture doesn’t evaporate. The human body begins to shut down at a core temperature of around 109.4°F. At that point, we begin to heat from inside. Any heat index over 105°F is dangerous to the human body (new studies are concluding even lower levels can be lethal). Above 124°F is considered extremely dangerous.
Then you die.
In the US, most places experiencing this rapid increase in temperatures are in the Desert Southwest, which typically have lower humidity and also air conditioning. So those with the means can live inside during long heatwaves, going from air conditioned home to air conditioned car to air-conditioned restaurant. So for now, it’s mostly the poor and homeless who die.
The other under-reported stat is overnight lows, which are increasing even faster than daytime highs. If anything, these numbers are more critical to any environment, because humans and plants are unable to recover. Humans can migrate if they are able, but trees not so much.
In the Near East, nighttime lows have been in the 80s up to high 90s in places. The same trends are clear in other regions of the overheating planet.
As heat indexes become more widely reported, climate denialists are lining up to deride these statistics as woke science, not real, like birds. It is another conspiracy, although who benefits is a different question altogether.
After 20 years of covering the global climate disaster, I have divided denialist trolls into two camps: 1) those who are well paid to continue the multi-billion dollar, multi-decade gas lighting extravaganza brought to you by the fossil boys and 2) fools.
However, there is likely significant overlap between these groups.
After having leveled 90% of the buildings on Carriacou, Grenada, Cat 5 Hurricane Beryl has already broken lots of records as it barrels toward Jamaica. The rapid intensification of this storm is unprecedented for this time of year (and for most any time of year), a condition made possible by Atlantic surface temperatures that are historically high. Rapid Intensification (RI) is defined as an increase of 35 MPH or more in a storm’s wind speed over 24 hours. Beryl’s wind speed more than doubled to 160 MPH from Monday to Tuesday.The year 2023 was the warmest globally on land, sea and air. According to Copernicus’ ERA5 data records from June, 2024 is already hotter, with global sea surface temperatures across most of the world’s seas at unprecedented levels even as the El Niño cycle slackens.The current temperatures are typical of September, not early July. On average, the first hurricane of the Atlantic season tends to form during early to mid-August. The first Category 3 generally doesn’t usually occur until Sept. 1, records show. Beryl hit Cat 5 in early July.Average daily sea surface temperature for the month of May hit a new all-time high of 69.67 F a monthly new record for the 14th month in a row. In a nutshell, the temperatures we are now seeing are decades ahead of what climate models predicted.
It’s fairly easy to grasp how extreme heat and water vapor levels can contribute to radical spikes in a storm’s intensity. But there is another factor contributing to Rapid Intensification that is less intuitive: the DEPTH of the upper layer of warm ocean water. In the past, when a storm passed over very warm water it fed off of the energy stored in the water, but also churned up that top layer to allow cooler water to rise from below.
Up until a few years ago, the normal scenario was that mixing of the cooler layers lowered the over all temps at the surface, reducing the energy available to the storm and therefore the intensity. In a sense, there was some self-regulation built in to the systems. However, with warmer surface layers now extending deeper, the upper layers stay warmer, the system energy stays higher and storms continue to power up.The planet’s seas have been absorbing heat and CO2 for decades, and we are now beginning to pay the price. Storms like Maria, Otis, Beryl and those that will follow this season are a preview of what is coming.
While some scientists waste time urging immediate, large scale adaptation to the planetary climate crisis, Florida lawmakers have simply made it go away via House Bill 1745, which combines enlightened legislation with magical thinking.
Having achieved major success banning library books about trans people and minority history, the emboldened GOP-dominated legislature has now outdone itself in the area of climate science. Ron’s army simply went ahead and banned the term “climate change” from official state documents and proceedings. References to energy efficient vehicles, contracting with “green lodgings” for meetings and cleaner fuels for conferences have been eliminated. In a separate move, local governments in Florida will not be permitted to mandate heat protection – water breaks etc. – for outdoor workers, the need for hydration being another woke liberal hoax. To be sure, some alarmists are concerned about Florida’s vulnerability to global warming, manifested by 100°F water temperatures last year, a massive coral bleaching emergency, accelerating temperatures, rapidly rising sea levels (about 8 in. since 1950), location in the path of intensifying hurricanes and soaring insurance rates. That’s why we needed Untermensch DeSantis to make it all go away with a flick of his little pen.
The boys of the GOP did manage to rename A1A to Jimmy Buffet Highway, effective until the iconic coastal thoroughfare disappears under the waves of the insurgent Atlantic Ocean.
Summary of Spring 2024 climate shocks:
including sudden Dubai inundation, western and southern Africa droughts, Venezuela ablaze, Florida cancels climate change. epic China floods, sparkling wine threatened by drought, Bangalore running out of water, Bogota running out of water, Madagascar extended drought and Dengue fever spreading, in surgent Atlantic Ocean.
The most alarming of climate alarmists are predicting one or more Black Swan events in the near future. The term refers to major catastrophes, collapses and cataclysms that have occurred infrequently throughout human and geologic history. “Black swan” carries the connotation that the event was foreseeable and perhaps preventable. The Covid pandemic, the 1929 stock crash and the Fukushima nuclear meltdown were black swans of the recent past; the impending breakdown of the AMOC is a probable future example.
Black swan climate events have occurred cyclically in the past, causing extremely rapid changes in global conditions, sometimes within a human lifetime. The Anthropocene climate upheaval of the present will most likely bring a series of black swan events, but with a twist: this is the first radical planetary change wrought almost entirely by human activity. Generally, a meteorite strike or mega volcano eruption has been involved.
Less radical long time climate prophets such as myself think (or hope) that the worst to come will be preceded by something less dramatic, at least for the near future. What I foresee is a series of Gray Swan events: non-cataclysmic scenarios that will cause serious but not lethal disruption of smug “first world” life styles. A slow decline consisting of a parade accelerating inconveniences. Less and less stuff. Even a shortage of Mylar party balloons. Even after Alaric’s unfortunate visit in 476 CE, it took a long time for Rome to fully collapse.
A grey swan occurrence could be a killer storm, a hide tide and high seas disaster that takes out the luxury condos of a coastal vacation infrastructure (such as those already taking place more and more frequently). Typically, the sparkling beach sand will be replaced at great cost and new resorts will be rise again. In spite of the huge property loss, these events fit comfortably in a gray swan scenario (depending on whose money is involved) until the losses become too great. But beware: gray swan morphs to black swan when the insurance companies pull out for good (a development that already happening).
For most participants in Western Civilization, crop failure-driven food shortages are the looming gray swans of today. In real time, for example, climate change is costing Vietnam’s rice bowl $3 billion a year in failed harvests; you are unlikely to be aware of these far away developments because you are not currently affected. It will be when multiple rice producing regions fail at the same time that global prices will go up. For now, only the Vietnamese farmers are screwed. Similarly, products grown in climate challenged places such as Pakistan, Sudan, Chad, Honduras and the Sahel etc. only affect the locals for now.
And while many choose to make inflation a political problem, Europe’s 2023 heat wave affected soy, maize and sunflower harvests, ultimately triggering up to a full percentage point of US inflation. Closer to home, when the Ogallala aquifer taps out under the Great Plains, then you are going to see some serious ag issues.
As climate change accelerates, global disruptions will eclipse the Covid pandemic.
To a large degree, the leading edge of this inevitability will be shortages of luxury goods, followed eventually by their absence. Ironically, it has long been my belief that these inconveniences will be nearly as convincing to climate fence-sitters as watching someone else’s coastal home washing out to sea.
To these evolving shortages we can add sustained pressure on cocoa prices, driven by a combination of ongoing drought, extreme weather and evil corporate behavior in West Africa. Bad yields have tripled the price of chocolate to $10,000 a ton (although the monopolistic system assures that farmers lose out). If the hedge funds who have already bet billions are correct, the situation will continue to worsen over the foreseeable future (as reported by the Financial Times).
Last week, the cocoa crisis was manifested in the price of chocolate Easter products- from high-end Cadbury eggs to more pedestrian Hershey rabbits – following a 13% increase in the overall price of chocolate candy over the past year. Before that you may have noticed candy bars becoming incrementally smaller or thinner or offering less chocolate content in other ways (the candy equivalent of a short pour). (Shrinkflation is the proper economic term) The yearslong shrinkage of the Cadbury cream egg has become a minor scandal, not spoken of in polite society.
Fine wine is just one example: more frequent extended droughts, unpredictable water cycles and violent storms are already impacting traditional wine making regions as higher temperatures shift harvest schedules, while pests and diseases migrate to new domains. Over the past few years we have also seen major spikes in the prices of beef, citrus fruit and sugar. Extremely rapid warming in the Gulf of Maine is driving lobsters north toward cooler waters an ominous development for seafood lovers.
These increases are all caused to some degree by the impact of global heating.
You will see major pressures on coffee as rising temperatures reduce growing areas by up to 50% in the next decade. Similarly, 90% of marine and fresh water stocks are endangered in one way or another by a combination of changing ocean temperature and over-fishing. Ocean species continue to move north in search of cooler waters, but North only goes so far north until you run out of planet.
I could go on.
Although there are those who would love to blame Biden (because he loves raising prices in an election year, just for fun) these increases are caused to some degree by the impact of climate. You will see major pressures on coffee as rising temperatures reduce growing areas by up to 50% in the next decade. Similarly, 90% of marine and fresh water stocks are endangered in one way one way or another by a combination of changing ocean temperature and over-fishing. Ocean species continue to move north in search of cooler waters, but North only goes so far north until you run out of planet..
The news media is slowly noticing that some of the world’s elite 1% types are building doomsday get-aways, including one said to sport a flaming moat (presumably as a deterrent to hoi polloi hordes trying to escape the climate apocalypse).
Of course, these so-called doomsday bunkers are not well documented: it is doubtful that escape castle portcullis’s will be opened to the public once the first Cat 7 cyclone destroys Savannah, or a long dormant virus escapes the thawing Arctic permafrost or New Orleans disappears for good beneath the Gulf or New South Wales goes up in a final flame. In other words, no media attention is not sought at this time.
Although current not-that-well-informed estimates of the numbers hover as high as fifteen of these installations globally (Peter Theil, Bill Gates, Marc Zuckerberg), my guess is that the total is considerably more than that (Elon is apparently committed to Mars). The global hierarchy will not likely be publicizing these high-end escape modules. There will be no road signs to help the proletariat find them. They have read “The Masque of the Red Death” and know how the townspeople feel about this stuff.
THE ULTIMATE GET AWAY
Nevertheless, word has filtered out from various contractors specializing in this commercial space. Demand began to escalate during the pandemic and continues to climb. The perilous political situation and impending eco-collapse of the planet is also good for business.
Why are the best and the richest building upscale bunkers when they could be buying more super yachts?
Because they know things we don’t.
Maybe you only skim the typically tepid corporate news coverage of the unfolding climate catastrophe, but the terrifying documentation is there for anyone to see. Consider that 2023 set another record for warmest year globally in roughly a hundred thousands of years, for both atmosphere and ocean. We have just experienced the eighth consecutive month of record global heat. Temperature of the seas is off the charts.
The North Atlantic is bathtub-warm months before normal as the fires of Canada’s disastrous 2023 conflagration continue burning underground as part of Australia bakes and the other half drowns as rivers in the Arctic turn orange from newly released toxins as Spain and Italy endure relentless drought as global river shipping is in jeopardized as Antarctic sea ice undergoes an “abrupt critical transition” to another summer low extent as the Texas Panhandle burns as Greenland turns green with new vegetation as large swaths of South America see catastrophic wildfires as the Amazon is on the brink of no return as glaciers in every mountain range melt away and the effects of escaping methane are just beginning to kick in.*
If you don’t believe climate scientists’ warnings, maybe you’ll believe one of the world’s largest insurance companies.
According to the world’s second largest insurance broker Aon PLC , the number of billion dollar climate disasters in 2023 was the highest ever.
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Driving all this is a dozen climate feedback cycles that have passed the point of no return. SEE PAGE.
This is what I already know. Imagine what people with limitless resources know.
Another way to look at it: If I (or you) were a billionaire (increasingly unlikely), I personally would be building a nice, secure compound deep inside a mountain, on the water or beneath the Antarctic snow pack. The challenge is mostly money and time. Have you seen what these guys want for even a modest luxury bunker.
In summary, there is good reason to believe the 1% knows far more about what is coming than Joe Citizen. No one knew the certainty of the global climate shock better than Exxon many decades ago, so it seems reasonable to conclude that tech billionaires have access to data and other resources that predict a very rough ride for much of the planet. But with a nice bunker escape estate, there’s no reason the End Times have to cut into one’s lifestyle.
FROM DOCTOR STRANGLOVE TO TRIDENT LAKES
The elite survival bunker is not a new idea, although generally the survival modules of the last century were focused on surviving a nuclear holocaust. Dr. Strangelove with Peter Sellers was a great film of the Sixties, but like many parodies, some of the concepts were real, already in place under the West Virginia mountains. Project Greek Island was a huge fallout shelter facility intended for use by the United States Congress and special companions.
And then there is (was) Trident Lakes, one of the twenty-first centuries most embarrassing developments, which went Chapter 7 bankrupt (MORE bankrupt than regular bankruptcy) in 2018, leaving only a dried up fountain on the site. Envisioned in the above ground section was an18-hole golf course, high-end spa, gun ranges, zip lines, shops and restaurants, all protected by a wall and watchtowers designed to kill zombies, poor people and journalists. Most of the post-apocalyptic living space was supposed to be below ground.
And membership was to be by invitation only!
*None of these conditions and events in isolation would prove global warming, but the fact that they are taking place simultaneously at unprecedented speeds and scales is impossible to dismiss.
Unless one follows the breakdown of the planetary climate system, most people aren’t aware that many of Alaska’s rivers are now flowing a rusty orange and turning seriously acidic, as chemicals once locked by the frozen permafrost begin to leach out into surrounding waterways.
This recent Arctic development is directly related to an earlier post that reported several other consequences of rapid permafrost thaw. In that Jan 19 post I summarized several climate phenomena triggered by the thawing of permafrost and the resulting release of methane gas from various places it has been stored for a long time. The developments include exploding methane craters, flammable bubbling lakes, marine seafloor frozen CH4 clathrates and creeping megaslumps.
Now we see another alarming scenario brewing, as the iconic Salmon River, the Agashashok River and number of other Alaskan waterways - about 75 at this point - are flowing hazy orange, with acidity levels running 100 times higher than expected and low dissolved oxygen measurements. According Scientific American's January 1 article, analysis of the waterway shows it contains high levels of manganese and iron that are similar industrial wastewater. And yet this river was once described as having “water of exceptional clarity.”
This is not the usual mining wastewater scenario, which is caused directly by human dumping of poison from extraction sites. Rather it is one step removed: as anthropomorphic global warming raises temperatures, it melts the tundra faster, releasing microbes that free yet more trapped greenhouse gases and so on...we’ve covered this particular feedback before.
There are other reports - not verified at this point - that the same thing is happening in northern Canada and Siberia. Given the cause and effect trail, it would be surprising if it were not. And the emerging situation may be worse than what can been seen: the ominous discoloration is determined by the chemical makeup of a specific watershed’s sediments, so not all contaminated rivers will look rusty. Sadly, the acidic pH levels (6.4) are far more dangerous to river life and surrounding ecosystems, and that data is not visible.
Scientists at this point are indicating that minerals are either leaching out of rock that has been newly exposed to water and suddenly active bacteria in defrosting wetlands are also releasing iron, manganese and other elements.
Although we expect this phenomenon to worsen rapidly, it has already negatively affected the indigenous way of life. The increased quantities of dissolved minerals and salts in the waters of the Wulik and Kobuk rivers to increase, threatening the drinking water supply for native communities. The affects are seen in fish and wildlife, with key staple fish species are reported deformed in increasing numbers.
There is a certain amount of low grade irony in the fact that many the most powerful effects of global heating are taking place in the relative cold of the Arctic. Not only is this region warming three time faster than the rest of the planet, but visual evidence of ecosphere collapse in the far North tends to takes more exotic and dramatic form than in the lower latitudes: Exploding craters, flammable lakes, crashing glaciers. But comparatively few humans live in the Arctic and therefore miss all the powerful evidence of the broken climate on display.
It will only be when extreme weather events and the serious disruptions to the food supply affect their own lives that people will truly understand.
NOTE: I did NOT cover the collapse of the Arctic human infrastructure or the very possible emergence of viruses and bacteria also trapped by frozen ground - two more separate topics.)
New methane craters continue to blast out of the Siberian tundra.
One of the first and still the largest emerged in Turkmenistan 1971 with some help from a drilling rig and continues to burn today. The so called “Gates of Hell” (also known as the Darvaza gas crater) is about 200 ft. in diameter and 100 ft. deep. Since then, dozens of new craters have emerged without the help of humans, with blasts that can be heard 60 miles away. This anthropomorphic phenomenon is a direct result of global warming, linked to the thawing of permafrost triggered by runaway warming in the Arctic. Although it dissipates after 12 years, methane (renamed by the fossil boys “natural gas” to make it sound more friendly) is far more powerful than CO2*. It also explodes. At this point, science doesn’t know for certain how much of the gas is down there, but spewing additional megatons of CH4 into the atmosphere can’t be good.
THE MEGASLUMP THAT ATE SIBERIA
In 2023, Batagaika Crater – the world’s largest permafrost crater – continued to grow in Siberia. Already more than half a mile deep, this monster “mega-slump” is expanding at about 33 ft. a year. This part of Siberia is warming about 2.5 times faster than the rest of the planet is warming, accelerating the land surface thaw.
These non-explosive but more widespread craters are another dramatic manifestation of land subsidence caused by permafrost collapse. This phenomenon was first noted in the 1960s and is becoming more and more common as the climate warms.
THE CLATHRATE MENACE BENEATH THE SEA
And below the surface of the Arctic seas lurks another ominous peril, with a name out of a Phillip K. Dick horror fantasy. Composed of methane frozen within a crystal of water, methane clathrate (CH4·5.75H2O) or “fire ice” is found in the deepest sediments of the ocean. As the seafloor temperature increases, these reservoirs appear to be destabilizing, releasing methane into the ocean and atmosphere. While this process is not fully understood at this point, evidence is clear that there have been dramatic, rapid climatic consequences in the past. Although unproven, the “methane burp” hypothesis claims an event during the Paleocene epoch raised deep ocean temperatures about 10°F.
FLAMING LAKES
Also related (and lots of fun in their own right) are thermokarst lakes: the entertainment value being related to the fact that you can light them on fire. As ice melts on the lakes for the first time in thousands of years, newly released methane bubbles up from the deposits below. The greenhouse gas emissions from these lakes deploys powerful climate effects because of the rapid release of long stored CO2.
BLOWING THROUGH THE ALBEDO FEEDBACK LOOP
Of the many climate feedbacks at work on the planet, the “albedo” effect is one of the most convincing. As snow cover and sea ice area diminish, less solar heat energy is reflected back into space and more is absorbed into the oceans and land, further heating the planetary systems which accelerates thawing of the permafrost. While most noticeable in Siberia, these phenomena are also taking place in Alaska and Canada.* Carbon dioxide stays in the atmosphere for thousands of years, which is why the current global measurement is now approaching 425 PPM.
I don’t know, does anyone else think that there might be some sketchy optics when a major oil producing nation hosts a global climate conference, and the president of the event – head of the state oil company – publicly objects to the term “phaseout” fossil fuels. The very mention of such a thing caused Cop28 conference president Sultan Al Jaber) to insist there is “no science” indicating that a “phase-out” of fossil fuels is necessary. In fact, the petro boss was a little cranky with press members asking such awkward questions of the host. The host of the climate event.
“I accepted to come to this meeting to have a sober and mature conversation. I’m not in any way signing up to any discussion that is alarmist. There is no science out there, or no scenario out there, that says that the phase-out of fossil fuel is what’s going to achieve 1.5C,” ranted Al Jaber.
”Stop the pointing of fingers. Stop it!”
Hey, sorry Al! Didn’t mean to offend. Hoping this doesn’t mean I won’t be invited back?
To be quite candid, a lot of people disagree with the Sultan. In fact, the past month saw a couple of successive days in which the magic 1.5C threshold was already breached. 2023 is the hottest month globally for hundreds of thousands of years. Emissions are still climbing, ice melt at both poles is accelerating, droughts are emptying rivers, atmospheric CO2 has soared past 420 ppm for good and extreme weather event insurance losses breached $100 billion annually. The USA is producing more oil and gas than anytime in history.
So then, if the 84,000 attendees of Cop28 weren’t there to phase out fossil fuels, why did they commit all that time and money? Did you guess that the 1,400 oil company lobbyists in attendance were there to promote solar and wind? Nope, sorry, you guessed wrong.
No, the point of this glitzy exercise in lux networking and sustainable partying is to help the distracted, uninterested and overwhelmed public feel as if something meaningful is being done to put the brakes on the runaway climate emergency. In other words, to provide cover for corporate business as usual (even maybe meet some fellow operatives and make a few deals – that oil isn’t going to extract itself).
The strategists who run the global denialist infrastructure have moved past denial (it’s been an ever shifting platform for at least six decades). The new phase is dedicated to shaping and smoothing the narrative to make sure the draconian actions that are now imperative do not happen. Instead, the oil producing entities have most definitely committed more or less to probably take some action pretty soon “as they see fit.” Lots of words, nothing actually binding. And history shows that even those promises will not be kept. There is no enforcement mechanism in the contract that no one will read.
So the way this will work is the way it’s supposed to work: the average citizen will probably peripherally notice that there was a climate summit and they will read the back pat ourselves press releases. They will conclude – because they really want to conclude – that the greatest catastrophe ever to face the species is being taken care of. But it isn’t.
One unprecedented outcome was announced after Cop28: The First World countries agreed for the first time to set aside $550,000,000 for third world companies to “fight” climate change. That’s a lot of zeros. F
For perspective, it’s the price of Jeff Bezos’ latest boat. Maybe Maldives can build some sustainable rafts.
Most of the rest of the world has forgotten Australia’s summer of 2020, when wildfires driven by apocalyptic winds and 120°F temperatures killed hundreds of people, torched 72,000 square miles and 3 billion animals and cost in the neighborhood of $88 billion. The firestorms moved so fast that fleeing Australians were incinerated in their vehicles trying to escape.
The Red Hot Chile Peppers Song “Black Summer” metaphorically commemorates the event, which was a wakeup call to many in the land down under. Some woke up, some expedited the world’s largest coal mine.
Now, many wonder if a repeat of the catastrophe is in the near future. On December 8, temperatures at Sidney airport approached 110°F, with 85 bushfires still burning in the state. Jasper, a very early Cat 4 cyclone is churning south toward Queensland, threatening a landfall this week.
Australia has always had crazy climate extremes, but the last decade has moved into a range that can only be called apocalyptic.
These events are unfolding a day after scientists from the EU climate service Copernicus announced 2023 would be the hottest year on record AND as the Cop(out) 28 joke conference – hosted by one of the planet’s largest oil producers – makes a mockery out of any meaningful effort to mitigate the climate crash.
https://rapidclimatechange.org/videos/australias-new-normal/
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Last week’s death by heat of a young Brazilian Swiftie concertgoer was breathlessly covered by global media. The record heatwave involved was noted as a component of the story, but typically missed the much much larger story: the accelerating eco-collapse of Amazonia as Brazil recorded its highest temp of all time (112.6°F) and the nation's hottest driest winter ever. One more broken record in the hottest planetary year in hundreds of thousands of years.
Now spring is beginning in the Southern hemisphere and the web of waterways that are the lifeblood of the region are drying up, leaving boats stranded in the muddy river bottoms. Water levels in the mighty Amazon and its tributaries are at never before seen lows as the ocean forces salt water deeper into the delta. If the pattern prevails, the hydroelectric dams that are the main source of energy in the Amazon region will fail.
The global climate catastrophe is the driving force behind the emergency, but human activity – as always – has pushed the region to the brink. Healthy forests once generated regular rainfall and cooled the region naturally. Those days are gone. The pattern now in effect is a typical climate feedback loop, with higher temperatures triggering more fires which burn more trees which create a warmer climate. The local crisis is a climate disaster within a climate disaster.
STATES OF EMERGENCY
With forests already slashed by cattle ranching, mining and illegal logging, new blazes are filling the air with smoke so toxic that school is canceled in Manaus and other cities. Through the bleak landscape wander emaciated cattle, simultaneously cause and victims of the drought and toxic air in the shrinking tropical forest. Palm trees shrivel and the leaves wrinkle up. Mass dolphin die-offs are photographed and cataloged in 102°F waters as the rains decline to make an appearance. Food and drinking water are already scarce.
Seventy-five percent of the states in the Amazonas region have declared a state of emergency, this only two years after the worst flooding catastrophes of all time. The flood drought flood model that characterizes the dawning Anthropocene epoch becomes more extreme with each cycle.
“The forest is succumbing," Climate Observatory executive secretary Marcio Astrini told the Financial Times in November. “It doesn’t happen as a whole or all at once, but in some regions you’re already experiencing these inflection points.”
Like Moses’s wives, the name of this deceased Brazilian music fan is not easy to find in the reporting. Ana Clara Benevides Machado’s death is only important to the media in the context of megastar Taylor Swift. Similarly, the fact that her death was a small component in the collapse of the world’s largest rain forest was barely noted…and then they move on to the next shiny thing.
Until we grow up as a species, our prospects for surviving the climate crash will continue to dim.
It’s not that sand storms in semi-arid Tajikistan are new, it’s that there are now 10 times as many events as a few decades ago, they are more violent, the season lasts much longer and the fine particles are more deadly to humans. They were rare in the nineties, but now afflict the capital of Dushanbe30 to 40 times a year.
The most obvious cause is the heat-driven extended drought that is drying out Central Asia. The effects are most dramatically seen in the collapse of the once magnificent Aral Sea to the northwest. The other part of the climate component is that winds are becoming more powerful, lifting more soil into the air and carrying it farther, and making the air borne particles more destructive.
Worse, the airborne particles are also composed of salt and toxins that damage lungs over time. For Tajikistani citizens, the health toll is becoming alarming, as these fine particles infiltrate and destroy lung tissues. In Dushanbe, air quality and visibility has reached the level of an ongoing emergency
Yet another contributing factor is less obvious: not only do these toxic storms impact agriculture, they speed alpine glacier melt, which historically provides what little fresh water is available to farmers.
Not your grandfather's hurricane
The hurricane that devastated Acapulco last week is getting little attention as Gaza, Ukraine and “As The Donald Turns” divert the attention span of corporate media. Nevertheless, this particular climate disaster highlights the realities of the new normal in hurricane and cyclone behavior.
The aftermath of this Category 5 monster storm looks much like any of several other recent extreme weather episodes. The event left hundreds of thousands of Mexicans in the resort city of about 1 million in dire straits, with little hope of any kind of timely relief for the underclasses. About 250,000 homes were completely destroyed and the final death toll will be in the hundreds. The city was flooded, homes, hotels and businesses were destroyed, vehicles were tossed about and submerge (Don’t worry, the tourist center will be restored ASAP).
Driven by preternaturally warm waters, the 165 MPH winds speeds were second only to the record smashing 200 MPH gales of Hurricane Patricia, which struck further north in western Mexico in 2015. Patricia was the first storm to really grab the attention of climate scientists as it went from about 100 MPH to 200 MPH in a day. Patricia received little coverage because it hit a sparsely populated area, so there were no good photos.
Although this phenomenon began to alarm climate scientists several years ago, Otis took authorities by surprise as it blew up from a tropical storm to a Cat 5 monster in 24 hours. In the nine hours before landfall, Otis’s sustained winds went from 90 to 165 MPH. This dynamic is known as rapid intensification and it is increasingly common. It is technically defined as escalation in wind speed of 35 MPH in 24 hours; Otis increased roughly three times that fast, ambushing authorities and hindering evacuation
If you think of hot water as HURRICANE FUEL, it’s easy to understand how globally warming waters are driving the new breed of hurricanes. Warmer water means more energy is available to the storm system. This is true of extreme weather on land as well, as “thunderstorms” cause more and more wind damage and flooding.
The less obvious factor driving intensification is the DEPTH of the warm water in the upper layers of the oceans. “Legacy” hurricanes were self-moderating in the good old days, because the storm would churn the upper layers as it moved over them, bringing up cooler waters below and causing a cooling near the surface. This process lowers the overall energy of the storm. With warmer waters extending deeper in many areas of the ocean, this scenario is no longer in effect, and hurricanes explode in power rather than diminish.
Earlier this year, Atlantic Hurricane Lee blew the doors off with a display of rapid intensification that saw its increase wind speed by 85 MPH in 24 hours as it moved through record warm waters. Luckily Lee moved north into cooler waters before it made landfall. In 2008, the incredibly destructive, 1,000 mile wide Hurricane Ike displayed similar behavior before it hit the Texas coast in 2005, killing hundreds and causing billions in damage.
A new research report confirms that rapidly warming waters triggered the mass die-off of billions of Alaskan snow crabs. The collapse pf the population is linked to a marine heat wave that occurred in the region between 2019 and 2021. Prevailing theory is that the warming waters elevated the crabs' metabolism, causing them to die of starvation. $ Billions will be lost, and a large percentage of the fishing businesses are expected to declare bankruptcy.
The hurricane, which made landfall near Acapulco on Wednesday morning as a Category 5, intensified by about 110 mph in just 24 hours. Rapidly warming oceans are making storms more powerful and difficult to predict. This record breaking storm surpassed Hurricane Patricia (2015), which was the first to shock climate scientists in terms of rapid intensification..
Hundreds of pink river dolphins are dying in the Amazon Basin as record temperatures and an extended drought take their toll on the once threatened ecosystem. The immediate cause is attributed to extreme temperatures in Lake Tefé, measured in excess of 102 °F.
The Amazon region contains about 20% of the world’s fresh water, but most rivers are now becoming impassable as water levels drop.
Spring is just beginning in South America, Australia and Antarctica, but unusual heat blasts are already baking large swaths of the planetary south. With the southern hemisphere in the October “mirror month” of April, temperatures are already approaching record levels for summer. But it’s not yet summer.
Puerto Esperanza, Peru reported 106°F – disturbingly high for this time of year and also only a couple of °F° degrees short of its all time high, period.
Similar scenarios unfolded in Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Bolivia, Paraguay and Peru.
In São Romão Brazil, the temperature hit 110°F
(Typical highs for this time of year are in the 70’s and 80’s)
Filadelfia, western Paraguay 112°F
Trinidad, Bolivia, 103°F
Las Lomitas, Argentina 110°F
“Biblical Punishment” Drought In Uruguay
Uruguay emerges from winter after an apocalyptic drought that reduced the Paso Severino reservoir to a dusty ruin, with the capital city at one point having to tap into the nasty River Plate. $1 billion in agricultural products turned to dust as experts are predict a major social upheaval in the countryside.
Australia On the Verge
Meanwhile, the land down under is emerging from its warmest winter ever, entering a spring that looks like more of the same. The Sidney area hit 100 degrees F the first week in October (mirror month April) as dozens of runners were hospitalized due to heat stroke. Ski resorts have closed early. Eighty-five bushfires have already broken out in New South Wales, where a large percentage of the population lives.
A record El Niño has arrived as predicted, teaming up with the rolling climate emergency that has gripped the country for at least a decade. It is amplified by a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, a natural climate pattern similar to El Niño that has significant influence on Australian weather.
This triple whammy is a confluence of these two natural weather patterns whipped up by accelerating global heating. The La Niña pattern that has dominated the past few years is gone. La Niña is typically associated with a planetary cooling effect, and yet, these years have been among the hottest recorded.
Speaking to CNN, David Bowman, of the University of Tasmania, Australia noted: “The climate change monster has woken up and El Niño means it is angry.”
Way Way Down Under: Antarctica No Longer “Stable”
The news from Antarctica is potentially even worse, as the sea ice around the continent recorded an all-time low area for maximum ice coverage. That means when the ice floe coverage hit its greatest extent for the year, it was missing a chunk about the size of Argentina.
New Zealand officials convened an emergency summit on October 3 to discuss the situation.
As is the case at the North Pole, global weather patterns are significantly impacted by the southern ice pack. The southern ocean is heating up rapidly, with significant concerns that the coastal ice shelves are melting from below.
The severely depleted reservoir serves the capital city of Uruguay with 2 million people.
The Swiss Academy of Sciences has documented a more rapid collapse of Alpine glaciers over the past two years, an acceleration equal to the entire volume lost from 1960 to 1990. That stat is based on a decline of 4% this past summer and 6% in 2022, the worst year ever. The cause of course is record high temps and record low snowfall.
Europe’s glaciers had already lost about half of their volume in the past century.
Swiss scientists have stopped measuring many glaciers, simply because they are essentially gone. Matthias Huss of the Glacier Monitoring Switzerland organization (GLAMOS) predicts that only about one third of the mountain nation’s glaciers will make the long haul even if the imaginary international 1.5C target.
This is more than just bad news for the Alpine tourist industry. Yes, glacier retreat does threaten local economies based on ski resorts, climbers and hikers (the death toll for hikers is climbing as glaciers collapsed). But water from melting glaciers is also essential to the fresh water supply of Europe and the ability of major waterways to provide transportation. Shipping on the essential Rhine River has been restricted in 2022 and 2023 because of low water levels.
Alpine glacial runoff also irrigates crops and cools nuclear plants. The emerging pattern is insidious: First there is more water, then there is no water. Glaciers produce more meltwater in the early stages of rapid melt, then it is gone.
Almost a side show (albeit potentially deadly), newly formed lakes are growing to bursting behind moraine dams, creating Glacier Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF), which endanger mountain villages downstream when the dam collapses.
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Speaking of GLOFs…
UPDATE: DEADLY GLOF EVENT IN INDIA
Oct 3, 2023 - A lethal flash flood in the Sikkim region of India was triggered by a Glacial Outburst Lake Flood. The event completely submerged the village of Singtam, killing at least 15, with hundreds missing. The outbreak flood had been predicted by government agencies, but the warnings were ignored. Glacial lake eruptions are becoming a fact of life as the climate emergency accelerates.
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Finally, as previously reported, as ice melts in the very rocks that form the mountain structure, the frozen “glue” that keeps it all together is thawing permanently (similar to crumpling permafrost in the Arctic). The imminent danger of entire mountains disintegrating into rock slides is driving evacuations of places such as Brienz, Switzerland, which was abandoned just prior to a mammoth rock avalanche that nearly destroyed the canton in June.
A Mediterranean cyclone brought 16 inches of rain in 24 hours to eastern Libya, driving a ten foot tsunami wall that destroyed dams, bridges and infrastructure in the process of setting a new rainfall record. This is more than a year’s rainfall in a place so dry that no permanent river runs through it. Storm Daniel is a Medicane, a term coined to describe the increasingly violent weather impacting the regions as the globe heats.
Around 10,000 more are missing and 30,000 displaced in Derna, a city of 100,000. Many are believed swept out to sea or buried in rubble...
Massive infrastructure damage in the east Libyan city of Derna from Storm Daniel.
Canada wildfires in the far north prompt evacuation of 20,000 in Yellowknife
With hundreds of wildfires already sweeping through BC and Quebec, Canada’s worst wildfire season just got worse as the disaster moves into the Northwest Territories. In Yellowknife, a mandatory evacuation order went into effect creating a chaotic scene as long lines of cars queued for miles to flee along the only road out of town.
Firestorms: Maui / Hawaii's Worst Disaster In History
Hundreds are dead or missing as hurricane force winds ignited drought stricken fields, forests and neighborhoods. The historic seaside town of Lahaina has been reduced to ash and thousands were evacuated. Desperate tourists ran into the ocean to escape the flames.
The Mediterranean nation known for it's temperate climate registered 102°F in mid-August as a lethal sand storm swept through Marakesh.
The storm came suddenly on a clear cool day and hit the travelers on interstate 55 near Springfield, IL by surprise. The 200 ft high wall of soil blinded drivers, turning the day into utter darkness and sending 84 speeding vehicles crashing into each other. Some caught fire and burned on the highway. The death toll was seven, with vehicles and bodies burned beyond recognition. This is a global warming event, driven by drought and unenlightened industrial ag practices.
The collapse of a glacier in the Dolomites and a landslide on the island of Ischia. Devastating floods, wildfires and record-breaking heatwaves. The worst drought of the Po, Italy’s longest river, in 200 years. Luca Mercalli, an Italian climatologist, has seen his fair share of extreme weather events in Italy within the past two years. But nothing prepared him for the scene in Mortegliano, a small town in Friuli-Venezia Giulia, the northern region bordering Slovenia..
102°F is plenty hot any day most places, but it’s winter in South America and the town of Vicuna, Chile is roasting. And Vicuna is in the Andes Mountains. For perspective, think of August in South America as the equivalent of February in North America.
Louisiana: New Climate Refugees As Waters Close In
Only 15 miles south of New Orleans, the waters around Grand Island, Barataria, Crown Pointe, and Jean Lafitte are continuing to rise, threatening long time residents of the bayou area. About a football field worth of wetland disappears every two hours.
Horrendous rains have brought lethal flooding and landslides that have displaced thousands the Durban, South Africa region. The humanitarian disaster, as always, is magnified by malfeasance on the part of the powers what is. More than a decade ago, poor families were relocated away from a new soccer stadium and dumped in a flood prone area, where they remain. Damages are currently estimated at $684 million and rising. The death toll will climb.
Add Alaskan snow crab to the growing list of marine animals threatened by rapidly changing conditions on the ground, or, in this case, in the Bering Sea. Extreme ocean warming in the area around the Pribilof Islands (between Siberia and Alaska) has crashed the population down nearly 90% from 2021 levels. Read the Article.
There is a lot of CH4 trapped beneath the surface of the planet, particularly under the permafrost in Siberia, Alaska and other Arctic regions. As the permafrost thaws, the gases trapped below it spew into the atmosphere, creating a climate feedback cycle with results that are observable in something close to real time. Visit the Page.
Late winter in the Arctic temperatures were about 70°F above the normal average at some measurement stations. Some near North Pole stations reported the beginning of melt. New heat records were also established in Antarctica with temperatures of over 50°F above the normal average in March. Visit the Page.
Another widespread die-off at the World Heritage site off the northern coast of Australia marks the sixth such catastrophe since 1998. This ongoing environmental disaster is driven by warming oceans and pollution. The most recent aerial survey shows almost no reefs across a 1,200km stretch unaffected by the elevated water temperatures. See Australia’s New Normal video.
The inland sea that forms the iconic core of Utah’s Latter Day culture is in danger of disappearing as it reaches its lowest level. About half of the original lakebed area is now dry land In the process, thousands of square miles of dry lake bed is exposed, laying open vast expanses of toxic dust.
Life-threatening heat waves are shattering temperature records, with highs reaching over 100°F. High temperatures are expected to climb to 10°F to 15°F above normal.
East Antarctica’s Conger ice shelf – a floating platform the size of Rome – broke off the continent on March 15, 2022.
Lake Mead has dropped to an unprecedented low and other regional reservoirs have reached emergency levels as the western drought continues. Hydropower is likely to be curtailed and blackouts are expected. Read the Article.
Five million children near are starvation in Afghanistan amid the worst drought since records began. “When there is no rain the land is dry and we can’t grow anything … The drought has completely devastated our land.”
*Flagstaff, AZ resident watching her neighborhood go up in smoke, quoted April 21, 2022 in the New York Times.
Violent weather events—frost, hail, storms, rain at harvest, dry summers—have become more frequent. Slow to acknowledge the creeping disaster, French wine authorities have authorized planting of new varieties.
Coastal water levels are dropping even as melting land glaciers dump tons of fresh water into the North Atlantic. As the immense weight of Iceland’s glacial ice mass disappears into the North Atlantic, the land beneath it is “bouncing back”, more or less springing up as the burden is removed. So seas seem to be dropping lower on the coasts of Iceland even though water level is relative to the land mass. Read the Article.
The reality of calamitous sea level rise smashes into Sidney as tidal onslaught tears boats their moorings. Bondi and Clovelly beach clubs and hotels took a pounding from huge wind driven swells. The second major cleanup follows a major flooding event only three weeks ago. It’s all part of Australia’s New Normal (see our video).
The root cause of the so war in Syria was an unrelenting drought that brought farmers to their knees. It moves into its third decade as the worst in the Middle East for at least 1,000 years. Conditions have worsened in the past two years: Herds have been culled and crops are generally devastated. The iconic Khabur river is at record lows..
After a scorching heatwave, Argentina is suffering another round of raging wildfires that torched forests and farms across its northern region. Authorities estimate early losses at a quarter billion dollars with 2 million acres torched. The region has been experiencing record heat this year, baking in unprecedented temperatures up to 113°F.
Kenya and the Horn of Africa are in the third year of failed rainy seasons as the desert takes back the land. 5.5 million children in the region are threatened by acute malnutrition. Millions of head of livestock have died of malnutrition and in Kenya, Forecasts indicate that below average rainfall will continue into the foreseeable future.
The far right Brazilian administration has accelerated the plundering of indigenous lands; what environmental regulations remain are essentially gone. Many scientists now believe the critical forest carbon sink has crossed the final tipping point in terms of climate effects. When forests are cleared, another climate feedback cycle is triggered.
Life-threatening heat waves are shattering temperature records, with highs reaching over 100°F. High temperatures are expected to climb to 10°F to 15°F above normal.
Little remains of the ironically named Eternity Glacier in Papua’s Jayawijaya mountains. The once might ice formation is expected to be gone by 2025.
The Gulf Stream carries warmer waters north, where they serve to moderate the climate of northern Europe. Look at the latitude of Western Europe and you will see how far north the nations that invaded North America are located compared to the US east coast. The global ocean current is driven by salinity changes in the northern sea, which causes surface waters to change density and sink (that’s basically how it works). When this mechanical process is disrupted, weather becomes unpredictable and extreme, extended events mo
These events and conditions occurred in the past 30 days. Visit RapidClimateChange.org for more.
Humans are funny.
As a certain segment of the population obsesses over how expensive it is to fill up the ole (completely necessary) Escalade, the climate emergency worsens.
Yet most of the stories below barely make the news and if they do, hardly register. Meanwhile, the most recent climate report from the UN agency incorporated such epithets as 'Delay means death'. There was nothing good in this report, yet it dropped on the world stage with a thunk.
Below is a summary of a few current disasters. Perhaps seeing the some snapshots from a global perspective may move a few people.
This is what’s going on in early 2022.
March: Drought in the West and Great Plains continues to worsen, and there is no reason not to conclude we are in for a long bumpy ride as the megadrought expands.
Bomb Cyclone In the Arctic brings temperatures 50F higher than normal.
Freakishly High Temperatures At Both Poles Simultaneously
Arctic + 70°F over normal temperatures | Antarctic 50°F over normal temperatures
It is late winter in the Arctic but temperatures are nearly at the freezing mark, about 70°F above the normal average at some measurement stations. Some near North Pole stations reported the beginning of melt, far earlier in the season than normal. On the other end of the planet, temperature records are being set on these last days of Summer. On Friday March 18, the Concordia weather (at two miles altitude) reported 10F and the Vostok station hit 0, a new all-time record by 27 degrees. Terra Nova base was at a balmy 44.6°F. As opposed to the West Antarctic Peninsula, these temps are happening on the vast frozen Eastern Antarctica land mass, the coldest place on Earth. At the same time, Antarctic sea ice extent is at an all time record low since measurement began in 1979. Full story here.
Catastrophic flooding in Australia following successive years of drought and more epic floods.
Syrians Suffer Ongoing Famine As Drought Enters Its Third Decade. Remember the drought that started the Syrian Civil War? It never went away.
Wildfires and heat waves in Argentina have torched 2 million acres so far.
Kenya: Water Shortages, Dead Livestock and Ruined Harvests as Desertification Moves In
Winter Rains Were Not Enough As Record Heat Returns to California
Polar Ice At Both Poles Is Now Melting From Below: new research (this one is really scary). Separate report here: https://rapidclimatechange.org/the-ice-goeth/
Full report and videos at RAPID CLIMATE CHANGE.ORG
There is a pattern here.
A combination of geography and right wing government cupidity makes Australia the most vulnerable region on the planet. Australians are similar to Americans in that we prize our self-reliance and resilience to a fault, making us perfect targets for the corporate plunder monkeys who have spent billions lying about the realities of global warming. The pattern is Drought Flood Drought.
RAPISTS? MURDERERS? DRUG DEALERS?
The human face of global warming, as warming-driven ecosystem collapse makes agriculture impossible in many regions around the globe. In Central America, hundreds of thousands flee 1,600 miles north to a country that does not welcome them and more than a million are internally displaced. It is only the beginning.
See more at RapidClimateChange.org
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